Autism diagnosis on the rise, according to trends study
November 1, 2024
A new study published in JAMA Network Open shows that the number of children and adults diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has increased by 175% over a decade.
Researchers analyzed electronic health records and insurance claims data from over 12.2 million people from 2011 to 2022. Over that period, autism prevalence across the lifespan rose from 2.3 per 1,000 people to 6.3 per 1,000 people.
While this study offers insights into trends in autism diagnosis over time, it does not replace or contradict prevalence data from the CDC, and should not be viewed as a standalone measure of autism prevalence.
Why is autism increasing?
Results showed that ASD prevalence was highest among children aged 5 to 8, reaching 30.3 per 1,000 children in 2022—about the same as the most recent CDC prevalence rate. Among adults, prevalence was notably low, particularly in those aged 45 and older. However, young adults aged 26 to 34 saw the sharpest rise in diagnoses, with rates increasing by 450% over the study period.
The increase in ASD diagnoses among young adults suggests that people may be going undiagnosed in childhood, only receiving a diagnosis in early adulthood when challenges in daily life become too difficult to manage.
The increase in ASD diagnoses among young adults suggests that people may be going undiagnosed in childhood, only receiving a diagnosis in early adulthood when challenges in daily life become too difficult to manage. This trend highlights the importance of accessible diagnostic services across the lifespan and the need for age-appropriate interventions and supports for adults on the spectrum.
The results also showed that males are about three times more likely than females to get an autism diagnosis. However, the gap seems to be narrowing. Diagnosis rates rose by 305% among girls and 315% among women, compared to 185% among boys and 215% among men. This trend may reflect greater awareness of ASD signs in females, who may present differently from males.
Among racial and ethnic groups, autism diagnosis rates rose significantly for minority children, though not for adults. For example, ASD diagnosis rates among Hispanic children increased by 315%, compared to a 146% increase for non-Hispanic children. Diagnosis rates among Black and Asian children also saw significant increases. These findings may reflect better access to diagnostic services within historically underserved communities.
“This study is a significant step forward in our community,” says Andy Shih, chief science officer at Autism Speaks. “It shows where we’re making progress, but also where we need to improve, especially when it comes to adults, women and girls, and diverse communities. As diagnosis rates rise, our focus should be on bridging gaps in healthcare access and ensuring access to culturally-informed care across the lifespan.”
These findings reinforce the need for inclusive services and supports for the growing and diverse population of people with autism, especially for adults who may lack access to services tailored to their unique needs.
